تحليل التغيّرات المناخية القصيرة لاستخدامها في التخطيط والإدارة البيئية في إقليم الجبل الأخضر

Abstract

The semi-arid, sub-humid ecosystem responds quickly to negative environmental impacts and requires effective environmental planning and management. The Aljabal Elkader area falls under the Mediterranean climate region, and the combination of human activities and climate changes has led to economic and environmental deterioration, including desertification and reduced agricultural production. Analyzing rainfall data from Shhat St. and Derna St. (1945-2010), the following results were observed: The rainfall data showed homogeneity when analyzed using the sequentially runs test. The rainfall patterns exhibited four wet and four dry cycles (5-11 years and 4-14 years, respectively) in Shhat St., while Derna St. had two rainy periods (10-13 years) and three dry periods (5-22 years). The correlation analysis indicated a slight positive trend in rainfall for Shhat St. (1948-1969) and a slight negative trend for Derna St. (1984-1963), although these trends are not statistically reliable.