Range Condition in Relation to Climate, Energy Variables, and Beef Cattle Population Dynamics in New Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54172/bcf7pt53الكلمات المفتاحية:
Range condition cycle, crude oil, temperatures, precipitation, beef cat-tle population.الملخص
Understanding the relationship between range condition and economic, environmental, and biotic factors and providing a description of the range condition cycle plays an important role in promoting the sustainability of ranching in New Mexico State (NM). This study aimed to understand the linkages between range condition and crude oil production, crude oil prices, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperatures, and beef cattle population as well as to describe the fluctuation in range condition cycle. Data for all study variables were collected for the period 1958–2017 period. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and its exponential version (GARCH) models were used to examine the relationships between range condition and all study variables. Range condition cycle was identified by using spectral analysis and seasonal adjustment function. Crude oil prices (β = -0.2669), mean annual precipitation (β = 0.0963), and mean annual temperatures (β = -13.2914) were the only predictors of range condition. The length of range condition cycle was 10 years. Range condition began to decline from the second year and continued through the third year and then began to increase from the fourth year and continued through the tenth year. Generally, range condition showed a declining trend between the 1970s and the mid of 2010s.
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