An Analytical Study of The Impact of Corruption on Agricultural Development in Libya (2002–2022)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of corruption on agricultural development in Libya during the period 2002–2022, by constructing an econometric model that links agricultural GDP to several interactive variables representing key development channels, such as agricultural investment, agricultural labor, exports, imports, and government spending within a context of corruption. The study employed time series analysis using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model after verifying the stationarity properties and the existence of cointegration among variables. Johansen's cointegration test results revealed long-term equilibrium relationships between the variables, while the variance decomposition analysis indicated that agricultural output is significantly affected by imports, public spending, and investment. The error correction terms showed limited capacity of the system to adjust toward equilibrium, reflecting the negative impact of corruption on the effectiveness of development channels. The study highlights the importance of institutional reform and targeted policies to enhance resource use efficiency and achieve sustainable agricultural development.