Economic Forecasting of Oil Revenues in Libya "An Econometric Study for the Period (1962-2021) Using the (ARIMA) Model"

Abstract

This study aims to attempt to build a standard model that can predict the values ​​of oil revenues in the Libyan economy for the next five years, using annual data on oil revenues during the period extending from the beginning of 1962 until the end of 2021. To achieve this goal, the integrated autoregressive model with moving averages (ARIMA) or what is known as the "Box & Jenkins" model was relied upon for short-term forecasting. The study reached several results, the most important of which are: that the oil revenue variable was characterized by continuous fluctuation between the rise and fall in its values, i.e. instability throughout the period studied, due to the factors affecting it, most notably international oil prices and the quantities exported from it. Also, the best model that can represent the oil revenue series in the Libyan economy during the study period is the automatically selected model for forecasting (10,1,3) ARIMA. Also, among the results reached is that the balance of oil revenues will take an upward trend in the next five years (2022-2026). The study also presented some proposals that would avoid shocks resulting from unexpected fluctuations in foreign markets. Keywords: Oil revenues, Box-Jenkins model, short-term forecasting.